Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.216782 2.350669 2.492057 2.653109 2.832249 3.026293 3.253600
2025-06-08 2.021214 2.205081 2.408918 2.653850 2.943195 3.278083 3.701044
2025-06-15 1.911131 2.126078 2.372600 2.680507 3.061119 3.525234 4.149197
2025-06-22 1.794426 2.023806 2.293312 2.639564 3.082409 3.644774 4.440146
2025-06-29 1.696727 1.934524 2.219370 2.593855 3.086623 3.734554 4.693204
2025-07-06 1.608065 1.849391 2.142985 2.536295 3.066221 3.783979 4.888855
2025-07-13 1.570975 1.824815 2.139232 2.569848 3.166713 4.005089 5.362117
2025-07-20 1.542078 1.808026 2.143071 2.611765 3.279671 4.252750 5.912505
2025-07-27 1.517153 1.794317 2.149091 2.655505 3.396874 4.517083 6.534429
2025-08-03 1.472229 1.752097 2.114479 2.639469 3.423628 4.641910 6.932065
2025-08-10 1.430246 1.711714 2.079974 2.620735 3.443602 4.755995 7.328146
2025-08-17 1.388090 1.669272 2.040467 2.591973 3.445026 4.837898 7.674766
2025-08-24 1.348677 1.629699 2.004030 2.566846 3.452110 4.933404 8.077352
2025-08-31 1.320493 1.604242 1.986036 2.567857 3.500779 5.107139 8.690536
2025-09-07 1.302023 1.591158 1.984545 2.593093 3.590300 5.365045 9.567879
2025-09-14 1.265031 1.551168 1.942965 2.554336 3.568998 5.410768 9.936289
2025-09-21 1.228847 1.511176 1.899891 2.511042 3.536707 5.431306 10.245586
2025-09-28 1.191276 1.468195 1.851061 2.456485 3.481279 5.400174 10.407866
2025-10-05 1.180858 1.462938 1.856824 2.488292 3.579497 5.692041 11.590649
2025-10-12 1.173175 1.461156 1.867393 2.528008 3.694688 6.036049 13.094749
2025-10-19 1.166233 1.460093 1.878802 2.569428 3.816241 6.413532 14.932072
2025-10-26 1.144727 1.437405 1.856813 2.554246 3.829531 6.545529 15.932758
2025-11-02 1.123568 1.414653 1.833969 2.536505 3.836489 6.663559 16.950039